A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
